Tech bubble that shouldn't be burst

 

Who can predict what new technologies will emerge in the next decade?

IT SEEMS like only yesterday the world was ushering in the year 2000, which brought with it the dreaded Y2K or "Millennium Bug". Now 10 years later, technology is playing an even bigger role in our lives than ever before.

(For the record, there were minimal global failures when the clocks rolled over into 2000, and it is still debatable whether this was due to pre-emptive preparations or overstating the problem in the first place.)

The last decade saw the birth and rapid growth of Google, the iPod/iPhone and BlackBerry, social networking, affordable air travel, and blogging among others.

Mobile phones got smaller, but then their screen size rose and computing capacity to let users browse the Internet, watch videos, play online games and purchase goods and services no matter where they were.

Television sets became thinner, and today offer greater clarity in picture and sound through high-definition; cars that run on electricity are already on the roads; and humans live in space stations.

Who can predict what new technologies will emerge in the next decade? Some of the common ones featured on various websites in recent days include a tablet PC for the masses, either from Apple or Google; 3D television; and augmented (or artificial) reality programmes and games.

L. Gordon Crovitz, writing in the Wall Street Journal, argues that most technology predictions for 2010 won't come true, because "the more we learn about how innovation happens, the less straight the lines of advance look".

He cites as examples several "worst technology predictions" in the past, including Bill Gates' forecast in 1981 that "no one will need more than 637kb or memory for a personal computer - 640kb ought to be enough for anybody".

Or how about 20th Century Fox's Darryl Zanuck who declared in 1946: "Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night".

Crovitz could be right. Maybe there's no point to predict what new inventions will greet mankind in the years ahead. Why ruin the surprise?

One thing that will change with new technology, rest assured, will be the meanings of words we have grown accustomed to. Here are some examples (sourced from the Internet):

Ten years Ago ... an application was for employment ... a program was a television show ... windows were something you hated to clean ... a keyboard was a piano ... memory was something you lost with age ... a hard drive was a long trip on the road ... a mouse pad was where a mouse lived ...cut you did with scissors ...paste you did with glue ...a web was a spider's home ... and a virus was the flu!

Happy New Year everyone!