Exports heading for strong growth this year

 

Exports may see double-digit growth this year, comfortably beating the 3.5 per cent forecast made by the government, economists said.

Recovering global demand for products like television, computer, mobile phone and digital music player is likely to boost exports.

The country's exports are driven mainly by electrical and electronic products, or parts used to make anything from digital cameras to laptops.

Last year, gross exports contracted 16.6 per cent compared to 9.7 per cent growth in 2008. Imports also declined 16.6 per cent.

CIMB Investment Bank chief economist Lee Heng Guie said that exports were recovering, buoyed by a rebound in global demand and the continued expansion of trade within Asia.

Lee maintained his export growth estimates of 10 per cent for this year.

Standard Chartered Bank considers the 3.5 per cent official target as "quite easily achievable".

"Malaysian exports are expected to stage a recovery, helped by the low base effect, global recovery in demand and robust commodity prices and demand," its economist Alvin Liew said.

Exports increased 18.7 per cent in December last year in comparison to December 2008, which performed badly as trade worldwide collapsed following the financial crisis in developed nations.

A Business Times poll had expected 11.87 per cent growth.

According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), December semiconductor sales rose 28.9 per cent to US$22.4 billion (RM77 billion).

The SIA expects unit sales of personal computers, cell phones and consumer electronics to increase this year and boost chips sales.

AmResearch senior economist Manokaran Mottain said the better export performance had increased the prospects of stronger economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, from -1.2 per cent in the third quarter.