Confidence key to recovery in 2012

Whether senior central bank officials will adopt a hawkish or dovish stance is left to be seen, although the market seems to think that there will no change to the Overnight Policy Rate's 3 per cent.

A FRAGILE 2012, pronounces the International Monetary Fund last week.

Its dismal outlook is probably a foregone conclusion for a good number of countries over the past few months, as reflected by the millions of people flocking to the streets, whether for the Occupy Wall Street or Arab Spring protests.

Whichever way you look, uncertainties are the order of the day and the flow of volatilities will continue unabated from 2011 into 2012, with or without the help of the "Black Water Dragon".

At the epicentre of the crisis, the Europeans are still figuring out how to manage it and this will weigh heavily on the rest of the world, regardless of whether China and India attempt to rebalance the global economy.

The two-speed growth continues but this time round, the emerging economies are going to feel the impact of the weakness in the G3 economies.

We are oft reminded that fundamentals are important but confidence is key and it is one element which is elusive; for instance, it seems to be markedly low, if not absent, at the recently concluded World Economic Forum in Davos.

It was only a year ago when IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, who was the then French economy and finance minister, said that confidence would be restored in an Europe that is facing a debt crisis.

Now her calls are directed at providing a firewall to the Greek crisis, a crucial move to restore confidence in the flagging Europe as well as the rest of the world economy.

The assessment of fragilities by the IMF and top economists of foreign banks echoes that made by Bank Negara Malaysia in its November monetary policy meeting.

Tomorrow, senior central bank officials will convene their first of six meetings for the year, during which they will outline the risks and challenges faced by the Malaysian economy due to the volatile international financial market conditions.

Whether it will adopt a hawkish or dovish stance is left to be seen, although the market seems to think that there will no change to the Overnight Policy Rate's three per cent.

Domestic demand had supported growth in the third quarter of 2011 but the fourth quarter is likely to show weaknesses.

Already the Leading Index, which the Statistics Department uses to monitor the economic performance in advance, posted the slowest rate since the global economic crisis in 2009. Economist are warning that the external headwinds will outweigh domestic risks.

Frederic Neumann of the HSBC Bank warned that the first quarter on 2012 would be a tough and challenging one.

December's data bounce was encouraging but more challenging readings could be expected.

But he said all this would prompt Asian policymakers to ease more decisively, cutting rates and loosening the fiscal spigot.

In the case of the United States, even the recent upturn in data trend had not prompted the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve to relook the policy rate.

The Fed's decision will enable Asian currencies, such as the ringgit, to face volatility as global liquidity search for attractive yield.

But Bank Negara holds steadfast to its strategy of having strong foreign reserves, which it could use to protect itself from these volatility.